The disparity between inflation levels and pay awards continues, according to our analysis of pay trends in the second quarter of 2011.
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Pay trends
Pay trends July 2011
The median basic pay rise remains at 2%, but the pay settlement pattern is being heavily influenced by little or no pay rises in the public and not-for-profit sectors. While many private sector employers are unable to match the high retail prices index inflation levels, there are signs that some sectors are faring better than others.

Inflation and earnings forecasts
Our forecasts page is updated every month and provides an up-to-date look at the likely bargaining conditions for pay setters over the coming months.

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Retail pay
Retail sector pay: median rises to 2.2% but challenges remain
For the second consecutive year, the median pay award in the retail industry mirrors the national minimum wage uplift. With weakening consumer confidence and a fragile economy hitting non-food stores, employers are starting to question the sector's ability to cope with continued minimum wage increases.

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Pay awards
› Pay review update

› XpertHR indicators: pay awards

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News and advice from XpertHR
› XpertHR salary survey of computer staff

› CAC reports significant decrease in number of applications for trade union recognition

› Defined-benefit pension schemes to allow earlier access

› Pension schemes value high-quality admin above cost savings

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Statistics and reference
› XpertHR pay trends homepage › Economic indicators
› Call for evidence on integration of income tax and national insurance › Calculators on XpertHR
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From our blogs
› Public sector pensions reform: scheme-level discussions to start

› Numbers forced into part-time work hit record high in 2011

› Computer staff pay heading upwards once more

› Inflation falls back, but remains well ahead of pay awards

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Editor's message
Editor's message
RETAIL SECTOR PAY
The disparity between inflation levels and pay awards continues, according to our analysis of pay trends in the second quarter of 2011. With the median pay award of 2% set against retail prices index inflation of 5%, employees are still experiencing a real-terms cut in pay.

Our latest round-up examines the headline findings on pay settlements, as well as taking a closer look at pay freezes, the spread of pay awards and the relationship between pay awards and inflation.

The story of pay settlements in the retail sector is a mixed one. While the median pay award stands at 2.2%, this is due to many employers being obliged to increase their lowest pay rates by this amount in order to comply with the national minimum wage uplift. Apart from at the lowest pay levels, many employees have seen their pay frozen for the past year.

Recent surveys have shown a slowdown in consumer confidence and spending. Coupled with the 2.5% increase in the national minimum wage from October 2011, employers in the retail sector are predicting a tough year ahead. Recruitment is likely to be sparse, and pay rises subdued, outside the minimum wage increases.

Email Sheila Attwood
Pay and benefits editor, XpertHR

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